The road to recovery

This Issue This is a part of the Tale of two cities feature

By - , Build 139

Earthquake-ravaged Canterbury is following a familiar path as it rebuilds. Studies of other places struck by disaster show there are well defined phases the city will go through before a new normal is asserted.

DISASTER RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION has discernible patterns that can be used to inform the Canterbury rebuild. The Resilient Organisations research group has been studying disaster recovery for 10 years. Disasters in the US – New Orleans, Australia – Black Saturday bushfires, China – Wenchuan earthquake, Pakistan – earthquake, Samoa – tsunami, to name a few, have been trackedand recovery patterns established.

The established phases

Common patterns and some indicative times of different phases have emerged from these studies, showing disaster recovery can be divided into five phases:

  • Chaos
  • Realisation
  • Mobilisation
  • Struggle
  • New normal.

Knowing the patterns from disasters, it is possible to predict some elements of the Canterbury rebuild, helping to inform the community of the challenges ahead.

Christchurch has been moving through recognisable phases in its recovery.

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Chaos – confused assessments

In the first phase, there is chaos. This lasts up to 6 months where the general situation is characterised by the question ‘What do we do?’

The key feature in this phase is the need for assessments of buildings and communities. These are not always welL established, so some learning by doing is evident.

Think of the initial building assessments for Canterbury where, in the need to act quickly, the assessment methods and protocols were not consistent and the quality of assessment was highly variable.

The chaos phase is also characterised by waste disposal and demolition as key priorities. Demolition on a wide, often brutal, scale commences. Even if buildings can be saved, in the interests of the need for quick decisions, salvageable buildings are demolished.

The chaos phase brings into focus the need to undertake a significant rethink of land use, involving questions such as ‘Should we rebuild?’ and ‘Where?’, but there is almost always a high-level government commitment to rebuild, forestalling the wider ‘Should we rebuild?’ debate.

Towards the end of the chaos phase new recovery organisations emerge, such as the Christchurch Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA). For the community, there is often temporary accommodation or temporary displacement and no or minimal rebuilding occurring.

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Realisation – awakening to the situation

At about 6 months, reality about the scale of the likely recovery starts to emerge. This realisation phase is characterised by the common thought ‘The disaster’s impact is bigger than we thought.’

Timewise, this phase can go on from 6 months to 1 year. In this phase, the common elements are around planning, especially rezoning and the introduction of quickly produced new building codes that are usually designed to improve past building practices and resilience.

In the realisation phase, initial resourcing problems are seen as some repairs start. There is almost always uncertainty from the population, characterised by the need for businesses to restart but reluctance to resume as usual where there is a significantly lower or displaced population.

Many are likely to still be in temporary accommodation, trying to repair damaged buildings, or have left the area.

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Mobilisation – getting on with things

Realisation leads into the next phase with a need to increase activity. This is the mobilisation phase. The 1-year anniversary marks the start of the mobilisation of the disaster and an increasingly elevated mood to get on with the recovery.

Mobilisation is characterised by the thought ‘We’re getting on with it.’ The mobilisation phase covers from the end of year 1 to the end of year 2 and is a time of energy and increased decision making. Often, public building repairs become evident, especially schools and community centres, as physical statements about the rebuilding progress are made.

In this phase, the first new buildings emerge and there is plenty of repair activity and an elevated concern about the wider resourcing problems, leading to increasing costs and shortages of supply.

However, there is much less uncertainty from the population in this phase, as activity leads to optimism. At this stage, where insurance is driving recovery, insurance problems become more prominent.

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Struggle – it’s going to take time

The increased optimism is often followed by a struggle phase, which covers the period of the end of year 2 to year 4.

The main mood of the struggle phase is the feeling that ‘It’s really hard, it’s not going to plan.’ There is a realisation that there will be no fast recovery. In all the disasters Resilient Organisations have studied, there is no such thing as a fast recovery.

Recovery takes a very long time and is always beset with unanticipated problems that slow the recovery timeline. The struggle phase sees much activity, such as houses rebuilt and businesses returning.

New business models emerge, as prior models cannot cope with the reduced business environment. The struggle phase is often epitomised by escalating costs, hard to procure material, a demand for skilled professionals, reduced housing stock and housing affordability problems.

The struggle phase is very hard for the community. More people start to reassess options and look to move.

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New normal – accepting the situation

However, on the horizon is the new normal phase, which starts around 4–5 years after a disaster and is characterised by the feeling ‘This is how it is, there’s no going back.’

There is always a new normal phase following a disaster. This phase finds landscapes that look very different – disaster recovery and reconstruction do not recreate the same environments seen prior to the disaster.

Everything is different – the way people conduct business has changed, building work is still on-going, but the architecture is different, and there are often delays, community configurations are different and community and social facilities are relocated and often reconfigured.

However, this new normal phase is a time where the community starts accepting the new normal environment.

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Canterbury nearing new normal

Where resilience has been introduced into the buildings and community, there is a sense of buildings being better, newer and safer. The community starts living differently from before the disaster.

For Canterbury, currently in the struggle phase of the recovery, there is hope for the future as the new normal phase approaches.

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