Population growth

This Issue This is a part of the From towns to cities feature

By - , Build 170

New Zealand is experiencing a mini-population boom, growing at rates not seen since the 1970s. If this is sustained, the 5 million milestone is expected in 2019. So where are all the people living?

CURRENT POPULATION  growth is largely driven by sustained high levels of net migration. Natural increase, the difference between births and deaths, has eased since 2010, and this will continue as our population ages and birth rates remain low. Without net migration, our population would decline.

Growth spread across the country

Despite strong growth nationally, the impact is spread sporadically across the country, depending on the attractiveness for migrants, the population at or approaching child-bearing age and the ageing population.

Looking out to 2038, Statistics NZ projects the population will have grown to 5.7 million, with Auckland responsible for more than half. Most regions are projected to grow, apart from the West Coast – declining by 3.7%. Our strongest growing regions are projected to be Auckland (31%), Canterbury (20%), Waikato (17%), Bay of Plenty (14%) and Northland (11%).

The strong growth in Auckland has created a halo effect across the upper North Island, with double-digit growth rates projected across Kaipara and Whangarei districts in Northland, Waikato, Waipa and Hamilton in Waikato and Tauranga and Western Bay of Plenty.

Greater Christchurch is a growth hub in the South Island, with double-digit population growth in the city and neighbouring Selwyn and Waimakariri districts as well as Hurunui and Ashburton districts further afield.

Even within regions, population can vary wildly between neighbouring districts and cities. Ruapehu, Kawerau, Opotiki and Wairoa districts are projected to lose more than 15% of their population by 2038, yet some are in the high-growth Bay of Plenty. A further 14 districts are projected to lose population between now and 2038 - mainly rural areas such as Tararua, Gore and South Waikato Districts. All parts of the West Coast will decline.

Changing construction needs

Four regions will have more children in 2038 than today – Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Canterbury. Auckland is the most youthful, with a median age of 34, and is projected to remain so in 2038 with a median age of 40. Conversely, the population aged 65 and over will surge in every region – ranging from 47% growth in Marlborough to 93% in Auckland by 2038.

The diversity of population growth will lead to widely differing construction needs. New greenfield schools will only be required in areas with an increasing population of children. An increase in facilities for recreation, healthcare and assisted living will be needed virtually everywhere. Provision of new facilities to meet evolving community needs may be particularly challenging for areas with a declining population.

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